As we enter late August, the semi-annual reports of leading container manufacturers have been released. Combined with official operating data from the National Bureau of Statistics and the General Administration of Customs, the true state of China's container manufacturing industry in the first half of 2026 can be largely concluded. Recently, a slight rebound in container shipping rates led many to proclaim a "reversal of the container manufacturing cycle" and a "recovery in manufacturers' performance." However, a thorough analysis of the comprehensive data reveals that while production volume has indeed stabilized at the bottom, with a clear quarter-on-quarter recovery in the second quarter, profits remain firmly at the bottom of the cycle, with a decline much larger than many anticipated.
Production Volume: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Confirms Stabilization in the Second Quarter
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative national metal container production in the first half of 2026 was 116.034 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; however, June's single-month production was 24.58 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. To clarify, the National Bureau of Statistics calculates containers by volume, covering all metal containers-including ocean freight containers, special containers, and inland containers-which uses a different statistical logic than the industry-standard TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit). Don't try to directly convert them. The monthly trend clearly shows a year-on-year decline in the first quarter, followed by an upward turn in the second quarter, indicating a clear recovery. Customs export data, corresponding to HS code 8609001, shows that from January to June, China exported approximately 2.0048 million containers, valued at US$5.852 billion, representing year-on-year decreases of 20.6% and 18.5%, respectively. Product category differentiation is the biggest characteristic this year: 1. 40-foot TEUs still account for nearly 70% of total exports, forming the absolute foundation; 2. However, 45/48/53-foot large-size containers saw a significant year-on-year increase in export value of approximately 63%, making them the only category to achieve positive growth in the first half of the year. This is driven by both global shipping route restructuring and increased demand for large cargo transportation. Sales data from core enterprises best reflect the true state of the industry. The sales resilience of the two leading companies in the first half of the year was actually very strong, with no signs of a "collapse": 1. CIMC Group: Total sales of approximately 1.2467 million TEUs, of which dry cargo containers accounted for 1.1385 million TEUs and refrigerated containers + special containers accounted for 108,200 TEUs. Special containers saw a year-on-year increase of 17.61%; excluding 2. COSCO Shipping Development (Shanghai Huanyu): Total sales of 958,600 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 13.35%, of which special containers sales surged by 117.31% year-on-year.
Based on the combined market share of these two companies, which is approximately 80%, the total national container production in the first half of the year was roughly between 2.7 and 2.8 million TEUs, roughly in line with the China Container Industry Association's initial forecast of "4.5 to 5 million TEUs for the whole year"-not high production, but definitely stable.
Profitability: Slight Revenue Increase, Profits Plunge More Than Expected
While production can be described as "stabilizing," profits are under real pressure, even described as "stable volume, collapsed profits." The performance of industry leader CIMC Group is most representative. In the first half of the year, its container manufacturing business revenue was 21.92 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.85% year-on-year, but net profit was only 272 million yuan, a sharp decrease of 81.16% year-on-year. The reason is very straightforward: the price of standard dry cargo containers declined year-on-year, coupled with exchange losses caused by RMB exchange rate fluctuations; squeezed from both ends, profits were directly eaten up by more than half. The sector's gross profit margin plummeted from 16.15% in the same period last year to 8.34%, a drop of nearly 8 percentage points. COSCO Shipping Development follows the same logic. Container manufacturing revenue reached 11.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.32%, but the gross profit margin was only 4.14%, a typical bottoming-out level for the cycle. Sales growth was mainly driven by special container business, but fierce price competition across the industry for standard containers meant revenue growth lagged far behind sales growth, severely squeezing profit margins. The combined revenue of the two leading companies' container manufacturing businesses was approximately 33.137 billion yuan. Based on industry concentration, the total revenue of the national container manufacturing industry in the first half of the year was estimated at around 40-42 billion yuan. Currently, the net profit margin of leading companies has fallen to the 1%-2% range, and the survival pressure on small and medium-sized manufacturers will only increase. The probability of industry reshuffling in this bottoming-out cycle is not low.
Three Clear Industry Signals
Finally, three core judgments can be summarized, all directly gleaned from publicly available data: the bottom of the cycle has been basically confirmed, and the worst is likely over. Production began to recover sequentially in the second quarter, a fact confirmed by both statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics and enterprise sales figures. Significant increases in standard dry cargo containers are unlikely; specialty containers will be the core growth driver going forward. Refrigerated containers, specialty containers, and large-size containers continue to experience rapid growth, and the speed of product transformation directly determines a company's survival. Profit recovery will lag far behind demand recovery. Upstream steel costs remain high, and downstream new container prices have not shown significant improvement. A return to the high-profit era of previous years is still a long way off.
